Why Wayanad for Priyanka Gandhi: Numbers tell the story

Since 2008, the Congress has been securing this Kerala constituency with notable consistency, making it one of the party’s strongholds. Despite a slight setback during Rahul Gandhi’s two victories between 2019 and 2024, this seat remains relatively secure for the party.

The electoral debut of Priyanka Gandhi is taking place in the Wayanad parliamentary constituency, which has been consistently won by the Congress since its establishment in 2008 post delimitation, with the primary opposition being the Left.

M I Shanavas, a seasoned Congress leader and former Kerala Students’ Union member, became the inaugural Member of Parliament from Wayanad by triumphing in the 2009 Lok Sabha elections. Progressing through the ranks from the Congress’s youth wing, he held the position of the vice-president of the Kerala Pradesh Congress Committee until his passing in 2018.

In an area where the Muslim community comprises 41% of the population according to the 2011 Census, Shanavas emerged as a prominent Muslim candidate. Despite facing defeat in three Assembly election attempts and two Lok Sabha battles, he finally tasted victory in 2009. During this breakthrough win, he clinched a significant 49.86% of the votes, surpassing his CPI competitor by a striking margin of more than 1.5 lakh votes. He successfully defended his position in 2014, although his victory margin and vote share slightly diminished compared to his previous triumph. The 2014 elections witnessed a fierce competition between the Congress and Left parties, with a narrow gap of around 21,000 votes setting them apart.

Following Shanavas’s demise in 2018, Rahul Gandhi stepped in as the Congress candidate in Wayanad. This move was strategic as it provided a secure stronghold for the party, especially during the intense competition Gandhi faced from BJP’s Smriti Irani in their traditional stronghold of Amethi. Wayanad emerged as a crucial victory, salvaging Gandhi’s reputation after his loss in Amethi. Securing an impressive 64.8% of the votes, he triumphed over the CPI candidate by a significant margin of 4.32 lakh votes. Gandhi’s resounding victory also significantly contributed to the party’s success in clinching all Lok Sabha seats in Kerala.

Gandhi managed to secure victory in Wayanad again during this year’s Lok Sabha elections. However, his percentage of votes and the margin of victory decreased, standing at 59.69% and 3.64 lakh votes, respectively. Interestingly, other candidates from the United Democratic Front (UDF) led by the Congress witnessed a significant surge in their winning margins compared to the previous elections in 2019.

The strong presence of Congress members during Priyanka’s nomination filing on Wednesday is indicative of one of the reasons behind their support.

The Wayanad Lok Sabha constituency consists of seven Assembly seats. In 2011, the Congress captured a combined vote percentage of 31.1%, which decreased to 26.9% in 2016 but rose to 34.5% in 2021. The Congress consistently outperformed the Left parties in the Assembly segments of Wayanad, with the Left securing 29.5% of the votes in 2011, 30.3% in 2016, and 25.6% in 2021. While the Congress and its allies swept all seven segments in Wayanad in 2011, their dominance reduced to three seats in 2016 before bouncing back to four seats in 2021.

Between 1977 and 2004, prior to the establishment of Wayanad through delimitation, the Lok Sabha constituency was divided among three regions – Calicut, Cannanore, and Manjeri. During the nine elections conducted within this timeframe, the Congress emerged victorious in Calicut and Cannanore on six occasions each, yet never clinched a win in Manjeri. The Left parties secured victories in Calicut and Manjeri only once, while Cannanore saw three wins. Alternately, the IUML emerged triumphant in Manjeri in every alternate election.